The Sukhoi Su-57. Photo by Maxim Maksimov. License: CC BY-SA 3.0
Ankara has reportedly already signaled interest in Su-57 stealth jets from Sukhoi
Last week, the delivery of the Russian S-400 air defense system to the NATO country Turkey began (cf. S-400: Erdogan defies the U.S. and NATO). U.S. Defense Secretary-designate Mark Esper described Ankara’s insistence on this delivery as a "wrong and derailing".
U.S. President Donald Trump was more understanding, saying that previous administrations had effectively denied Turkey the American Patriot competition system for too long, but now the country could not be supplied with the F-35 fighter jets it was supposed to be involved in building (cf. F-35 or S-400: A U.S.-Turkish-Russian Scramble).
The reason given by the U.S. administration is that an IT-intensive system like the S-400 collects information on fighter aircraft that the S-400 manufacturer would not want to get its hands on. To reare Washington, Ankara had offered to deploy S-400s only where no F-35s were flying. However, this was not enough for the Americans.
They argued that the Russian missile defense system with the NATO code name "SA-21 Growler" could compromise the Cold War military alliance’s defense capabilities simply by linking it to the IT of a NATO country. The US compromise offer to refrain from sanctions if Turkey undertakes not to use S-400 at all after delivery was again too bad for the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
or "far from combat readiness"?
In the event that the U.S. administration also formally decides to deny Turkey the F-35 fighter jets at the end of July, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov yesterday openly offered Ankara the purchase of Russian fighter jets. If these were to be replacements for the F-35, they would be less likely to be the Sukhoi Su-34s bought by Algeria or the Sukhoi Su-35s ordered by China and Indonesia, and more likely to be the new Su-57 stealth fighters first used in the Syrian war.
According to Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov, Turkey has already signaled interest – as have India and Iran. According to media reports, their unit price when sold to the Russian military will be less than 30 million euros. In export it will probably become more expensive. But an F-35 costs about three times as much.
In a quartet game where only stated performance numbers pay, a Su-57 could win against an F-35. Whether it is superior or inferior in reality is an open question. Pro-NATO media report problems with the engines, bombing at subsonic speeds, and integrating radar data. At Business Insider it is even said that the aircraft is therefore still in the "far from combat readiness".
Turkic TF-X to be ready in 2028 and "the best fighter in Europe" become
In the long term, however, Turkey would like to have its own fighter jet anyway: Turkish Aerospace unveiled a plastic model of a new fighter jet in June at the Le Bourget International Air Show, called the TF-X, which would be ready for production in 2028 and, according to the CEO of the state-owned company "the best fighter aircraft in Europe" (cf. Franco-German-Spanish "Air combat system of the future"). With such an ambitious project, some technology transfer probably wouldn’t come amiss – regardless of whether it involved developments from Sukhoi or Lockheed Martin.
This also applies to air defense systems. Meanwhile, there are reports that the militarily ambitious leadership in Ankara is considering buying the American Patriot air defense system in addition to the Russian S-400. Esper has ruled this out – but the designated defense minister is not the president. And both Patriot maker Raytheon and F-35 maker Lockheed Martin (which, according to Donald Trump’s "not exactly happy" with the threatened halt in deliveries to Turkey) have an interest in exporting as many of their military equipment as possible.
Therefore, it could be that in the event of a complementary purchase of the Patriot system by Ankara, U.S. concerns of operating F-35s in a country with S-400s would be reduced. Maybe even so much that Turkey will get the F-35 after all.